bepah

I am curious as to whether all of the efforts to find a commercial replacement for the Cavendish are being done outside of the US. I see a lot of info about the work being done in other countries, but not much about it here.

If for some reason, our imports of Cavendish were to dry up, it might be a larger problem for the suppliers than the current situation in Asia.

Which country is the largest imported of bananas (I would guess the US)? What impact would the disappearance of this market mean?

What would I put on my Cheerios in the morning?

Finally, are there any university research programs in the US working on it?

Thanks,

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John Case
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Chironex

I have seen quite a bit of banana research coming from Arizona, Ohio and Cornell. Let's not forget Hawaii where Gabe is going to school.

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Scot

lorax

Most of the USA's bananas come from Ecuador, and if the Cavendishes here fail, we will start exporting Panama-resistant Sedas (which you used to know as Gros Michel) again, I suppose. As far as I'm aware, the largest banana importer in the world is America.

What is most significant is that a second Panama disease outbreak will mean the end of monocultured bananas in this country; it's already been decided by our banana council that if the Cavendishes fail, laws will be passed banning banana monoculture and encouraging banana permaculture. Those Sedas we have are due to small farmers growing their banana plants in mixed plantation with papaya and coffee, which were found to have Panama-deterrent effects.

Neat, huh?

Gabe15

Gros Michel plants that survived the first attack of panama disease either were not in affected plantations and thus did not get the disease or may have shown some degree of resistance. However, they are not concerned about that same disease anymore, panama disease race 4 (different from the one that destroyed the farms in the past) will kill Gros Michel and Cavendish plants.

There is some research that happens in the US, however, even though we consume the most bananas, we really are not in the best situation to be researching them. We hardly produce any and we simply don't have enough land in the tropics to be doing it on the scale of the large banana research centers (which are also concerned and actively working on the issue).

As far as resistant varieties go, there are plenty that have been developed, and many more landraces that are naturally resistant to panama disease race 4. The problem is that none are similar enough to Cavendish, either in flavor and texture, culture and management, or shipping and handling ability to take the place of Cavendish.

In Taiwan, where the entire banana industry is based around TC plants, they are continually micropropagating new plants. I think they only harvest fruit from a plant twice, and then replant. This ensures that any pathogen present doesn't even have a chance of getting established. Since they produce millions and millions of plants annually, they get a lot of "off types" and in the early 90's already found stable mutations of commercial quality Cavendish which are resistant to panama disease race 4. If panama disease race 4 makes in to latin america, my guess is that many growers would try planting a resistant Cavendish before switching varieties altogether.

There are a lot of stories out there about how the banana is "going extinct" and will not be available in 5-10 years....its all very misunderstood and there are solutions out there. Worst case scenario (for the industry), is they would have to switch to something like Goldfinger, which although very different from Cavendish in flavor and texture, is resistant to panama disease race 4. I can't imagine that a banana grower would rather go out of business then try growing a different variety.

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Growing bananas in Colorado, Washington, Hawaii since 2004. Commercial banana farmer, 200+ varieties.

bepah

Gabe,

Thanks for your input.

The economics of what you seem to see as the future may not pan out, though. We, as Americans, have a real problem with change in our diets. For example, it is well known that a diet high in fats is potentially deadly and at least unhealthy, but we seem to continue to have one of he highest mortality rates in the coronary related diseases.

This is due to the fact that these types of foods are 1) convenient, 2) relatively inexpensive, and 3) darn good tasting, too.

Given that, a change thrust upon the good old Americans with a 'new' banana that does not look or taste like the one in the grocery store today will not have the popularity of today's Cavendish. While there may be some substitutes, there will also be a time where they are not as popular as today's banana and they will sit on the shelves and rot before they are purchased for consumption. This is why the efforts to find that magic Cavendish that resists Panama disease is so important. All of the laws enacted in the world to ban monoculture will not change this behavior.

I believe that until such time as other varieties are well and eagerly recieved by the American public, research in finding the magic Cavendish must be continued and even accelerated. The fact that there are other possibilities that can be used as substitutes is looking at it only from the supply side. The demand for these substitutes will lag, resulting in farmer's leaving the business (if you can't sell them, why grow them?). The companies can aid in their own self interest by doing some advance marketing (tasting tables at supermarkets, advertising the benefits of other banana types, etc.) but a transition will be difficult.

I think this area of study is important. I can give you a good example. Remember the New Coke and how well it was recieved? This new entry into the market was more or less pushed onto the consumer without any pre-marketing at all and was firmly rejected by the public. Classic Coke was stripped from the shelves as many thought that Coca Cola was not going to make any more (not true but less shelf space was given to it and rumors, as always, abounded). The company quickly retracted the New Coke and things went back to normal.

In the banana world, if the disease spreads, there is no going back to the 'Classic Cavendish', at least not now.

This post is already too long. I'm certain the continuation will follow.

For what it's worth, my real background is in economics.....and if you line up all of the economists in the world, you will never reach a conclusion.

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Bananaman88

All good points from everyone so far on this topic. Maybe it's just because we all (I assume) would like to try different varieties but I would think that if more variety were offered to get the American public used to the idea that there are other types of bananas out there, that that would help if we ever do reach the point where the Cavendish isn't readily available anymore. That way, some folks will have hopefully already tried one of the other types. Sure, they may not ever be as popular, but I would think that people would rather have some kind of banana as opposed to no bananas! Again, maybe it's just me, but I love variety. I'd be so happy to start seeing three or four different types of bananas offered instead of just the Cavendish. How boring would it be if we could only get Red Delicious apples? Personally, I can't stand RD apples; I much prefer Galas and Fujis! To each his own, I guess.

bepah

You make a pretty good point regarding the offering of different banana types into major grocery chains today. 10 years ago, we did not have the choice of Fuji, Gala, and all of the other apple types. We still have Red and Yellow Delicious, Pippins (for baking of course, although I prefer Granny Smith).

The question is, what action caused these other offerings into mainstream American purchases? The RD continues to serve well.

Is there an economically viable choice for an offering of another banana in this country today? I think not, as we are less adaptable today than even 10 uears ago. We suffer in this country from the worst possible substitute for intelligence, the mistake that opinion is as true as factual evidence. We as a society are almost like a child who will not eat his spinach because he doesn't like it, even if he has never tasted it. This cultural shift has occurred quite repaidly and caused the rejection of options in every aspect of life.

Getting back to other bananas, what might be an acceptable substitute for the Cavendish? If the best substitute is not economically viable, either by cost, availability, shipping resistance or other reasons, are there other choices? If so, how long before Dole, or Chiquita can offer them to the public with the accompanying fanfare?

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Lagniappe

Only a few short years ago,the novel little ladyfinger bananas started showing up in the produce sections. They were hard to find at first,being bought up nearly as soon as they were displayed. Now,having gaged the market, the grocers keep an ample supply . If the varieties are put out there I believe there would be a pull market for the preferred ones.

bepah

The ladyfinger has not made it out here......too bad for us...

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Bananaman88

I agree with Pete, but it depends upon where you shop. My wife and I primarily shop at the local Wal-Mart superstore as it is mostly one stop shopping. Having said that, they are probably the worst for offering much variety. I have never seen anything other than the "plain old banana" offered here. However, just down the road at Kroger I have been able to get some type of Red banana out of Mexico and some Baby Bananas by Dole (though they almost weren't edible). I think if given the opportunity, consumers would like to try something new and different. The Cavendish may always be the most popular because that's what we are conditioned to think we like but it would at least be nice to have the option. Of course, unless they can sell enough of them to make it economically feasible, the large corporations such as Dole and Chiquita will never import more that a handful of these. Our loss.

bepah

Pete makes a good argument for a 'pull market'.

For those of you that do not understand a pull market from a push market, it is quite simple. In a pull market the demand for the product greatly exceeds the supply. This is often the case for fad products like 'Crocs' or Beanie Babies, and then the demand dies. However, a pull market for staples or commodities (and bananas have characteristics of both) would be the desirable condition for producers. For example, a lot of people really like Ice Cream bananas. If they made their way to the market (unlikely because of their shipping tenderness) and people found how tasty they were, demand would go up, thus causing higher prices for them, thus additional resources would be put into production by other suppliers, lowering the price,...etc.

A push market for commodities or staples makes little sense as there are always more substitutes. An example might be toilet paper that is just a little less soft but lower in price, pushed onto the market by a producer tha thought the price break could cause demand. I think most people would pay the little more for the added comfort.

So,...back to bananas. How do producers create the pull market for Cavendish substitutes?

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John Case
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Lagniappe

Education ! If the fruits are displayed with some information of their unique characteristics it would likely provoke interest.
It would also inform the end user of the eating of said fruit. For instance, Both Brent and I have tried the Dole 'Baby Banana' and both had poor results, I later learned that they need to be really ripe before eating and tried again with excellent results. (I've also had a couple people over the years to say "I tried one of those giant bananas and they were horrible". If there were information on the cooking of the 'giants' , they would likely have loved them and continued frying them up to this day.)

lorax

Yup, you'd pretty much have to educate the consumer on the different varieties of banana available before you could create that pull market for them. Lagniappe gives good examples there; I'd add in that differently-coloured-skin bananas would require a goodly deal of info, especially the green-ripe ones that I sometimes find in the markets here. No idea what variety they are, but they're among the best nanners I've ever eaten.

Then again, I'm not a typical consumer since I generally go out of my way to try new things.

Bananaman88

How do you create a pull market for non-Cavendish types? I say the only way is for consumers to stop purchasing the Cavendish. I realize your question was how do the producers create a pull market, and since we, as consumers, are not likely to stop purchasing the Cavendish (since it's almost soley our only choice) then I just don't think it will ever happen on a large scale. The only way I can see it happening is if a massive outbreak of Panama Disease, BBTV, or Sigatoka really wipes out the Cavendish plantations and consumers are "forced" to try a new banana out of necessity. I"d prefer to have more varieties available, but if they are not I'm going to keep purchasing the Cavendish. They're better than nothing!

Bob

Bring back the "Chiquita Banana" cartoon! I can hear it nowif you're old enough you can too) "I'm a chquita banana and I've come to say Panama disease is here to stay so try an Ice cream , orinoco and all the rest and you are sure to find that cavendish ain't best". ok so I don't have a future in PR but I do think promoting different varieties first as "exotics" to expose them to a greater market followed by a price reduction due to higher production could work.

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Bananaman88

That's a great idea, Bob! I do think that if the large banana corporations would do some national advertising like this they would be successful. Afterall, what kid wouldn't want to try an banana that supposedly tastes like ice cream or even a banana with a flavor similar to an apple? I think kids (and maybe some adults) would like to try some of the bananas with more orangish flesh or the red-skinned varieties just for the novelty of it. I know I would.

bepah

Everyone seems to think that advertising may be the answer (I remember Chiquita banana, too).

But unless you have something to sell, all of the advertising changes nothing. I live in a suburb in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area, known as East County (Contra Costa County). Demand for all perishables is incredible here, as if a 15 mile radius drawn around my home, it would encompass over 250,000 people.

It is unlikely, right now, that an acceptable substitute for the Cavendish is being produced in enough volume for my little corner of the world, let alone the rest of the world. Substitutes might be weaned into the market, but where is the shelf space for them? Markets will not stock things that do not sell, especially things that go bad. We rarely run out of bananas here, but the shelves do get pretty bare at the end of the week.

Demand for bananas is high, mark up is low. Maybe the markets do not charge enough?

BTW, I truly appreciate the way this thread is going. Lots of good ideas and perspectives! Thanks to everyone!

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John Case
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saltydad

There must be a way to move from generic bananas to specialties, like coffee. The many varieties are selling great, even though there is still Maxwell House on the shelves. Some Jamaican Blue Mountain anyone?

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momoese

Agreed.

bepah

I am afraid.......Mitch agrees with me...

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