momoese

The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880.The finding sustains a trend that has seen the 21st century experience nine of the 10 warmest years in the modern meteorological record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York released an analysis of how temperatures around the globe in 2011 compared to the average global temperature from the mid-20th century. The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience higher temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92 degrees F (0.51 C) higher than the mid-20th century baseline.

harveyc

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Nicolas Naranja

Hidden in that statement is the fact that the temperatures have pretty much plateaued since 1998. I actually think the trendline may essentially be flat for 1998-2011.

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Richard

The published paper is a study of meteorological stations in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. It is not a study of temperature trends but rather

"for investigating the impacts of different types of station exposure on temperature trends"

It does point out that in contrast to global temperature studies

"the diurnal temperature range in the lower 48 states has no century‐scale trend"

The full paper can be read here: http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpr...1/07/r-367.pdf

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Nicolas Naranja

One of the things they harped on us about in my first statistics class was not to try to use past trends to indicate future trends. You can make a decent model of what already happened, but trying to predict things outside of the measured values was a losing game.

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Richard

NASA researchers are mostly in the sensor "business" and your advice is well-suited for them. In fact, the authors of the paper did not venture into extrapolation.

On the other hand, there are climatologists who model the earth system. Their studies are not a matter of statistics. One highly respected group is at UCLA.

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Nicolas Naranja

A lot of the popular press I see tries to make a correlation between historical CO2 levels and temperatures, but we are beginning to get outside thee range of observed CO2 levels. Climatology is very complex, and I don't think people are getting the full story about atmospheric chemistry and global temperatures and the reality of what it all means. I especially don't like the silencing of conflicting views that I see. Any evidence that Global Warming may not be man-made is quickly dismissed. And not to get too terribly scientific but the r-square of CO2 x Temp is not too terribly impressive. It doesn't explain as much of the warming as Al Gore tells you it does.

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Some people go bananas, I went plantains.

Richard

I agree. Trying to explain the mechanics of the earth with algebraic statistics makes little sense. However, that seems to be all that makes it into the popular press.

On the otherhand, when capable research teams who study the earth as a dynamical system state that things seem to be going in the wrong direction it is foolish not to sit up and take notice.

The r-square of CO2 x Temp is the average linear potential of entropic change with respect to CO2 mass over a given period. It is one of several values that an earth dynamicist would use to judge the validity of their dynamical model verses existing measurements. It is far more interesting to look at the underlying dynamics and what factors account for changes in earth phenomena on different time scales.

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harveyc

yada yada

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Richard

Was that a character in a Star Wars movie?

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harveyc

Seinfeld, I think.

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Richard

Oh. I had stopped watching TV long before that show started.

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caliboy1994

To me this is irrefutable proof of global warming.

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~ Masanobu Fukuoka

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caliboy1994

I thought that this was pretty interesting. An alternative explanation for global warming? Could be.

1/11/2012 — North pole shifts towards Siberia — warmer latitudes have shifted NW | ＤＵＴＣＨＳＩＮＳＥ = ＳＩＮＣＥＤＵＴＣＨ

I'd think that we would have least contributed a bunch to it though.

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"The ultimate goal of farming is not the growing of crops, but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
~ Masanobu Fukuoka

Find me on linktree here as Solarpunk Farmer:
https://linktr.ee/solarpunkfarmer

momoese

I don't have time to watch the whole video right now but it is interesting.

palmtree

Good vid.
Although actually after seeing this, Im a bit more worried about Global Cooling than Global Warming. Right not it seems like the warm temperatures have peaked and based on history, what comes up, must come down. We have been much warmer than present-day in the not-to-distant past. It was possible to farm in southern Greenland in the past. Imagine how warm the USA must have been! And then after that period of warmth, we got cold, very cold. I always hear stories of New York Harbor Freezing over entirely during the 1800's. Nowadays the harbor doesnt freeze over at all. And the first settlers in Roanoke had a lot of problems because of how brutal the cold was and thats in southeast Virginia which is a zone 8b today!
Right now it seems like temperatures are still increasing, but not as much as they used to. Things are definitely on a pleateu right now. The Earth never stays constant, the climate is always up and down. All it takes is a strong volcanic eruption or some reduced solar activity (which is predicted to happen in the near future) to cause a mini ice age. Hopefully we have many more decades of mild weather left and if not, then I guess I will have to move a bit farther south!

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Location: New York City, zone 7b

TRAY

Then again u got the government messing with the weather.

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Jack Daw

Oh Mr. Ventura. You know, don't know how about you, but I would principially not believe anybody who was or is a politician. It never ends well.

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Thnx to Marcel, Ante, Dr. Chiranjit Parmar and Francesco for the plants I've received.



Zeitgeist - Corporatocracy 101 (~2hrs)

Zeitgeist - Moving Forward (~2.5hrs)

momoese

Hey man, he's a pro wrestler first.

Seriously though, HAARP is very interesting/scary.

harveyc

Plant-Zone Map a Boon to Growers - WSJ.com

For a different view:
Sixteen Concerned Scientists: No Need to Panic About Global Warming - WSJ.com

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